Trade, exchange rates and open-economy macroeconomics.
Note: the PDF documents themselves are in French.
At each session, scan the QR code shown in class.
File: Seance-6-introduction-economie-internationale.pdf
This sixth session continues the gravity model with the gaps between predicted and observed trade, then introduces economic distance and multilateral resistance. Exercise 5 applies the model to Brexit: a 25% rise in economic distance reduces trade by 20%, not 25%. The session then presents trade policies and the levels of regional integration, before explaining Viner’s trade creation and trade diversion through the Morocco–Spain agreement (Exercise 6). It ends with a synthesis of Section 1 and opens Section 2 on the mobility of factors of production.
File: Seance-5-introduction-economie-internationale.pdf
This fifth session presents the gravity model of international trade, inspired by Newton's law: two countries trade more when their economies are large and less when they are far apart. It explains the basic formula, the meaning of each variable (the two countries' GDP, distance, the constant A) and of the parameters, which are read as elasticities, then the forces of attraction and friction between countries. It shows why the model is taken in logarithms so it can be estimated with a simple regression, how to extend it with a common language, a shared border or a trade agreement, and how to read an estimate with numbers. Simple examples work out the effect of a rise in GDP and compare France–Germany and France–United States trade. The session ends with Exercise 1: calibrating the constant A from the France–Germany pair, predicting trade for the other pairs and comparing it with observed figures.
File: Seance-4-introduction-economie-internationale.pdf
This fourth session ends the introduction by asking what the debates on globalisation change for Morocco, a small and very open economy that imports more than it exports. It first looks at Morocco's trade: the weight of trade in the economy, mostly European partners (Spain and France first) and cars, now the leading export ahead of phosphates. It then shows Morocco's strengths, the trade agreements signed since 1987 and the port of Tanger Med near the Strait of Gibraltar, and its opportunities: European factories moving closer to Europe and foreign investment. After the conclusion of the introduction and the outline of the course's three chapters, the session opens Chapter 1: the main trends in world trade since 1970, then trade between rich countries, which is very large and made of similar products, services and production steps shared between countries. It stops just as the gravity model is introduced, which explains trade by the size of countries and the distance between them.
File: Seance-3-introduction-economie-internationale.pdf
This third session addresses the central question: free trade or protectionism? It starts from the arguments for free trade, from Adam Smith and absolute advantage (1776) to David Ricardo and comparative advantage (1817), illustrated by the example of England and Portugal (cloth and olive oil), then discusses economies of scale, competition and the spread of technology, with applications to Morocco. It then examines the arguments for protection and their costs, compares the two options in a summary table and analyses the effects of globalisation on inequality (who wins, who loses?). The session also covers financial globalisation, its gains, its risks and the trilemma, as well as the new debate between efficiency, supply-chain resilience and climate. It ends with the institutions that frame the world economy: the IMF, the World Bank and the GATT, which became the WTO.
File: Seance-2-introduction-economie-internationale.pdf
This second session completes the first part of the introduction. It first shows that GDP is both output and national income, and that an excess of imports over exports means a country spends more than it produces; a worked exercise on a small open economy computes the trade balance and domestic expenditure, then checks whether tourism receipts, remittances from Moroccans living abroad and FDI cover the deficit. The session then defines the openness ratio, (X + M)/GDP, and applies it to Morocco, comparing it with the world since 1960. It next explains why international economics matters: the change in the scale of trade since 1970, the container revolution and the effects on everyday life (import prices, export jobs, the dirham exchange rate, remittances from Moroccans living abroad). Most of the session traces the history of the world economy in seven phases, from the first globalisation (1870-1914) to today's fragmentation, using a timeline glossary and the 150-year curve of trade openness: the Great Depression and trade blocs, Bretton Woods, the GATT and the EEC, the Triffin dilemma, the 1982 debt crisis and Morocco's structural adjustment, the WTO and China's entry, the 2008 crisis, Brexit and the trade war, logistics bottlenecks and additional tariffs. The session ends with the arguments for free trade (absolute advantage, comparative advantage, economies of scale, competition and the diffusion of technology).
File: Seance-1-introduction-economie-internationale-v2.pdf
This first session opens the introduction to the international economics course with the example of Tangier: the proximity of the Strait of Gibraltar, the activity of the Tanger Med port and the role of the automotive industry in Moroccan exports. After presenting the objectives and the outline, it recalls that economics studies the allocation of scarce resources, then defines international economics as the study of economic relations between sovereign nations. Four specific features are identified: sovereignty, currencies, the imperfect mobility of factors and the absence of a world government. The session then distinguishes real analysis from monetary and financial analysis, presents the main themes of the discipline and concludes with the circuit of an open economy.
File: TD1-nouvelles-guerres-economie-mondiale.pdf
Applied case study, to prepare at home and then discuss in class, on the five "wars" of the world economy: trade, critical metals, technology, money and armed conflict. Drawing on three documents (a summary based on the CEPII economists Isabelle Bensidoun and Jézabel Couppey-Soubeyran, the trade openness of the world and of Morocco, and Moroccan external trade), it asks students to read and comment on statistical data, to compute and interpret the openness ratio, the trade balance and the coverage ratio, to distinguish changes in value from changes in volume, and to place Morocco (partners, specialisations, Tanger Med) within the reshaping of globalisation.
More tutorials will be added during the semester.